A monthly market brief
The Paper Trail
Observations from the front lines of consumer lending, from Louis Barna, Managing Partner.
Latest issue
The Succession Squeeze
The credit cycle is forcing operators out — and the buyers can't get financed
A credit squeeze is pushing buy-here-pay-here operators toward the exit just as the natural buyers — the long-time employee, the dealer two blocks over — can't get the financing to take over. Two jaws of the same vise, with demographics only the tailwind. Here are the four ways out.
Every issue.
Vol. 1, Issue 4 · August 2026
The Succession Squeeze
A credit squeeze is pushing buy-here-pay-here operators toward the exit just as the natural buyers — the long-time employee, the dealer two blocks over — can't get the financing to take over. Two jaws of the same vise, with demographics only the tailwind. Here are the four ways out.
Vol. 1, Issue 3 · May 2026
Two Turns and Out: How Disposable Cars Are Driving the Voluntary Surrender Wave
Mechanical breakdown has overtaken job loss as the number-one reason borrowers hand back the keys — the first time in at least a decade. The car is breaking faster than the loan, and the old buy-here-pay-here math of turning a unit until the wheels fall off is finished.
Vol. 1, Issue 2 · April 2026
Bolted to the Roof: How Solar Loans Became the Industry's Most Expensive Problem
If you're holding solar loans right now — whether you're a credit union, a bank, or a specialty lender — you already know something is wrong. The calls are coming in. The disputes are stacking up. And the math that made these deals work on origination day doesn't pencil anymore.
Vol. 1, Issue 1 · March 2026
The Squeeze Is Real: Why Subprime Auto Is Getting Hit from Every Direction
If you're in the subprime auto ecosystem right now — whether you're originating, servicing, buying paper, or running a lot — you already feel it. The macro picture is rough. But what's different about this cycle is how many pressures are converging at once. This isn't one problem. It's five of them stacked on top of each other.
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