A monthly market brief

The Paper Trail

Observations from the front lines of consumer lending, from Louis Barna, Managing Partner.

Latest issue

Volume 1, Issue 4 · August 2026

The Succession Squeeze

The credit cycle is forcing operators out — and the buyers can't get financed

A credit squeeze is pushing buy-here-pay-here operators toward the exit just as the natural buyers — the long-time employee, the dealer two blocks over — can't get the financing to take over. Two jaws of the same vise, with demographics only the tailwind. Here are the four ways out.

Every issue.

Vol. 1, Issue 4 · August 2026

The Succession Squeeze

A credit squeeze is pushing buy-here-pay-here operators toward the exit just as the natural buyers — the long-time employee, the dealer two blocks over — can't get the financing to take over. Two jaws of the same vise, with demographics only the tailwind. Here are the four ways out.

Vol. 1, Issue 3 · May 2026

Two Turns and Out: How Disposable Cars Are Driving the Voluntary Surrender Wave

Mechanical breakdown has overtaken job loss as the number-one reason borrowers hand back the keys — the first time in at least a decade. The car is breaking faster than the loan, and the old buy-here-pay-here math of turning a unit until the wheels fall off is finished.

Vol. 1, Issue 2 · April 2026

Bolted to the Roof: How Solar Loans Became the Industry's Most Expensive Problem

If you're holding solar loans right now — whether you're a credit union, a bank, or a specialty lender — you already know something is wrong. The calls are coming in. The disputes are stacking up. And the math that made these deals work on origination day doesn't pencil anymore.

Vol. 1, Issue 1 · March 2026

The Squeeze Is Real: Why Subprime Auto Is Getting Hit from Every Direction

If you're in the subprime auto ecosystem right now — whether you're originating, servicing, buying paper, or running a lot — you already feel it. The macro picture is rough. But what's different about this cycle is how many pressures are converging at once. This isn't one problem. It's five of them stacked on top of each other.

Consumer Bankruptcy Monitor

Where consumer bankruptcy is growing, quarter by quarter

Chapter 7 and Chapter 13 filings by district and county, what filers owe and earn, and how their cases end. A new edition every quarter, straight from the federal courts’ own numbers.

Chapter 7 filings
366,863
+14.6%
Chapter 13 filings
214,153
+7.6%
Chapter 13 share of consumer filings
36.8%
38.3% a year earlier

12 months ended June 30, 2026

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